The decline in both per capita and total VMT has been noted in many contexts, but some have doubted that the decline will last once the economy recovers. Is the end of the “driving boom” a lasting trend, or just a short dip? The fifty states plus the District of Columbia offer a useful natural experiment to examine different factors behind America’s reduction in driving since 2004. Examining the commonalities and differences in driving trends among states can provide insight into the potential causes behind the downturn in driving and the direction of future trends.
This study finds that declining rates of driving do not correspond with how badly states suffered economically in recent years. The evidence suggests that the nation’s per-capita decline in driving cannot be dismissed as a temporary side effect of the recession. While certainly a contributing factor and an economic rebound could be expected to have some upward lift on driving, the recession does not appear to be the prime cause of the fall off in driving over the past eight years. Nor is it clear that future economic growth would lead to a resumption of the postwar Driving Boom.
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