By Eric Murphy
Lately, news about electric vehicles hasn’t been so rosy. The federal government has dramatically changed its transportation priorities, and the private sector has pulled back from or delayed significant EV investments. With electrification of the transportation system looking like it may proceed more slowly, states can still take other avenues toward a more sustainable system.
Background
Last year, we analyzed state-level trends in transportation emissions and found electric vehicle adoption was low. In many states, between 1-3% of cars on the road were electric, with somewhat higher numbers on the west coast. Those numbers were expected to increase over the next decade, but even in the states with the most optimistic pictures, like California and Washington, the uptick would be gradual.
Now, even those scenarios could be more difficult to achieve for states pursuing electrification. The federal government recently took aim at a tax credit for EV purchases and paused a program to build public EV charging stations while it seeks major changes or to eliminate the program entirely.
The DOT also reversed NHTSA fuel standards that would encourage the private sector to develop more EVs, saying the standards were “set at such aggressive levels that automakers cannot, as a practical matter, satisfy the standards without rapidly shifting production away from internal-combustion-engine vehicles to alternative electric technologies.”
Meanwhile, private industry has pulled back on EV investments, shutting down factories, delaying launches, and adding gas engines to previously all-electric models.
With declining federal support and private investment, state transportation agencies pursuing electrification as a goal will need to take the lead in encouraging EV adoption to hit their targets. Research shows that subsidies and carpool lane access are effective tools in promoting EV adoption.
But pursuing EVs alone won’t solve some of the system’s most pressing problems: EVs are too expensive for many households, with rising insurance costs and new tariffs likely to push costs even higher. At a system level, switching from gas to electric vehicles also won’t ease problems brought on by vehicle travel like traffic congestion, safety concerns, and pollution other than carbon emissions.
Some states aren’t waiting
At least 16 states and Puerto Rico require reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by state law. Those states will need to take even more of a proactive stance to hit their targets.
With the EV transition seeming to face a steeper climb over the next few years, making traveling without a car more convenient will be necessary in the short and long terms. Multimodal investments in infrastructure for walking, biking, and transit tend to be less expensive and can do more per dollar to advance long-range planning goals than roadway expansions, helping the system achieve better performance on congestion and emissions.
State agencies can also reduce the need for people to drive long distances to meet basic needs by using land more efficiently and coordinating their planning with other agencies. The U.S. Climate Alliance just released a new guide for states to reduce emissions through better land use policies and planning coordination.
Finally, many states are eyeing a shift toward a tax on vehicle-miles traveled to finance infrastructure rather than an unsustainable reliance on a dwindling gas tax. Even with slower electrification, encouraging travelers to use other options and not drive as far can keep agencies on track toward their performance goals, including legally required climate and greenhouse gas goals.