By Chris McCahill
For years, people wondered whether travel would bounce back after the pandemic. The latest FHWA data, along with other new research, gives a clearer answer. Growth has slowed. In 2024, total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) finally inched past its 2019 peak, but by only 0.5%. On a per capita basis, Americans are still driving less, down 2.3% since 2019.
This is not a brand-new trend. Well before COVID, travel demand had already flattened out. We wrote about this “VMT Inflection Point” in the early 2010s, when steady growth gave way to a long plateau. Travel ticked up again briefly in the late 2010s, but COVID cut that short. Now the data points to a new normal in which growth is slower, uneven, and increasingly shaped by changes in how people work, shop, and spend their free time. The average American now drives nearly 5% less than they did in 2004.
A new report from UCLA offers insight into why. Using National Household Travel Survey data from 2001 to 2022, the researchers found steep declines in trips for errands, medical purposes, and recreation. “It appears likely that increased online shopping may have substituted for trips to the store for all travelers,” they explain, “while increased social media, streaming, and gaming may have replaced substantial numbers of social/recreational trips for youth.”
The generational shifts are striking. Between 2001 and 2017, young adults already saw a sharper decline in travel than their older peers: their daily miles fell by 19% compared to 10% for older adults. Since the pandemic, this trend has accelerated. From 2017 to 2022, average daily trips among young adults fell nearly 50%, and their personal travel mileage dropped by 41%.
The study also shows that many young adults still rely on cars when they travel, even more than before the pandemic. They take fewer car trips overall, but those trips are longer on average, which has kept their total VMT roughly the same since 2017. This pattern suggests people may be trading shorter, more frequent trips for fewer but longer ones—a shift consistent with Marchetti’s constant, the idea that the time people devote to travel each day tends to remain steady over time. Although older adults still drive more, they show a similar shift, along with a more significant drop since 2017.
What this means for transportation agencies is clear: the long-anticipated surge in driving has not materialized, and peak-period traffic pressures may continue to ease as more people shop online and work remotely. That creates an opportunity to rethink road design and investment priorities—planning for a future where traffic grows slowly, if at all, rather than returning to steep, pre-2000s growth patterns.
Photo credit: Michael Moloney on Unsplash. License.