During the height of Interstate construction, most engineers envisioned a future dominated by driving. Renowned engineer Walter Kulash noted the consensus at the time called for the “extinction of walking.” We now know that vision was misguided and unsustainable—economically, environmentally, and socially.
The future they sought to create isn’t the utopia they imagined. Transportation costs have soared, with the average household spending around 80 percent more over the last 15 years and government spending growing by 40 percent. Our reliance on private vehicles has pushed the transportation sector to the top of the list of contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and contributed to growing stress, isolation, and other health issues.
Today’s transportation planners may not be able to predict the future any better than their 20th century peers, but they can make investments today that minimize risks and position future generations for success, no matter what the future brings. That starts with a values-based vision, changes to performance measurements, and accountability to results.
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Lead with a bold vision
Visions and plans set the tone for everything an agency does, but vague goals like ‘improving mobility’ fail to inspire meaningful change. Too often, such goals translate to moving more cars faster over longer distances. Compare that to the mission statement adopted by the California DOT in 2014, following an in-depth review by SSTI:
Provide a safe, sustainable, integrated and efficient transportation system to enhance California’s economy and livability.
To tackle the big challenges they face, agencies need bold visions grounded in clear values. While those values may differ from state to state, achieving them requires more than isolated initiatives. It demands a new mindset—redefining success, focusing on what to measure, and delivering meaningful results. It also requires genuine engagement with communities to identify local needs and priorities.
Here’s an example of a radically different approach. Instead of measuring mobility, states can shift to measuring and improving access. Traditional performance measures like traffic delay and “level of service” are incredibly limited. They tell us how fast traffic is moving, but not how quickly people arrive at their destinations—or whether they can make the trip in the first place. Thinking in terms of access means considering how reliably people can get where they need to go, if they can do so without putting their lives at risk, and how they would do so without having a car. Virginia now evaluates accessibility for every project funded through its SMART SCALE program, and several other states are beginning to follow suit.
Some DOTs are beginning to recognize that steadily increasing the overall distance and amount of driving per person is unsustainable and they are working to make driving a choice rather than a necessity. In states like California and Minnesota, this shift has meant working to reduce the average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per person each year. Minnesota’s DOT, following recommendations from its Sustainable Transportation Advisory Council, is targeting a 14 percent reduction in VMT by 2040—an effort bolstered by legislative action. Colorado’s Greenhouse Gas Planning Rule, though not explicitly focused on VMT, has already shifted the state to a less highway-focused investment plan.
These initiatives often require officials to confront how building more and bigger highways produces new trips and more driving—a phenomenon known as induced demand—and stop expanding roads based solely on land-use forecasts, an approach sometimes called “predict and provide.” Unfortunately, most modeling tools and travel demand models aren’t designed to account for induced demand, leading some states to use evidence-based, sketch-level tools like California’s Induced Travel Calculator.
Just as decades of outward growth have fueled rising travel demand and congestion, land use decisions that limit sprawling development by locating housing and important destinations closer together will be critical for sustainable growth. State agencies can encourage efficient development patterns on state-owned land or through local incentives and investment strategies. For example, the Maryland DOT has identified state-owned land that could support dense, transit-oriented development. The Virginia DOT prioritizes projects that complement efficient land uses in its SMART SCALE funding program and the California DOT encourages compact development to offset increased travel demand from highway construction. The Florida DOT incorporates land-use considerations into its design standards, which encourages local governments to promote development patterns that match the desired roadway context.
Finally, our transportation system is unsustainable without reliable revenue streams. The current funding system, which relies on dwindling gas tax revenues, is insufficient. Most state and local transportation agencies are looking at alternative funding models, which include new taxes and fees, tolling and other road pricing schemes, or value- capture strategies. There is a growing recognition that mileage-based user fees are the most equitable, sustainable, and straightforward option. Paired with tools like managed lanes and congestion pricing, road pricing strategies can ultimately encourage more informed travel decisions, improving the system’s performance and reducing the need for more capacity expansion projects.
Plan for an uncertain future
The infrastructure that we need now and long into the future is not the same as what was needed in 1991, when the Interstate Highway System was completed. Without needing to predict the future, state agencies can make investments that offer the most benefit regardless of how the future plays out. In some cases, that means investing in greener, more resilient infrastructure. In other cases, it means designing roads that are flexible in meeting a wide range of needs, including people who might walk, bike, or rely on transit.
States can invest in resilient infrastructure today to prevent catastrophic damage and costly repairs in the future. Following Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, the Vermont DOT acknowledged the growing prevalence of recurring floods and implemented a Transportation Resilience Improvement Plan, a planning tool, and a project prioritization process. The Colorado DOT adopted a similar resiliency framework in 2020. The Hawaii DOT has responded to deadly wildfires that occurred in 2023 by planning new connections to the state highway system to facilitate more efficient evacuations. Most states are also beginning to plan for bridges and roads to fail sooner than originally anticipated due to extreme heat and temperature shifts, as encouraged by the PROTECT federal funding program.
Just like weather forecasts, it also is important to recognize that the ability to predict future travel behavior has significant limitations. While traffic forecasts have become more accurate since the earliest four-step models were first developed, there is still much room for improvement. The Colorado DOT, like many MPOs, has adopted an activity-based travel demand model that reflects natural human behavior better than traditional models. Equally as important, the Ohio DOT has used an integrated model to estimate population growth patterns within counties—a task usually left to local governments. And California’s Induced Travel Calculator accounts for the increased travel demand caused by highway capacity expansions, an area where most models fall short.
No tool or model, however, can provide a single forecast that captures economic changes, major policy shifts, or societal disruptions—such as global pandemics. Therefore, agencies must embrace the unknown and focus on the present. To explore the potential impacts of connected autonomous vehicles, for instance, the Minnesota DOT conducted a scenario-planning exercise that produced four wide-ranging possibilities. Similarly, the Sacramento Council of Governments used a “deep uncertainty” approach to stress-test its climate goals while accounting for equity and mobility. Armed with these insights, agencies can turn their attention toward existing issues while positioning themselves for success regardless of what challenges may exist decades from now.
Make plans that perform
A strong vision is just a vision. But a vision doesn’t always translate effectively into what gets built or how it is designed. Even the best plan must translate into programming, design, and operations. Otherwise, it risks being filed away on a shelf to gather dust while everyone carries on with their daily routines.
DOTs that set clear, long-term goals and align their policies, projects, and funding decisions with those goals are more likely to achieve their vision. However, according to Brookings, only nine states set concrete performance measures tied to their long-term goals, and fewer than 20 states even take the basic step of explaining how their projects address their goals. Achieving alignment requires deliberate action, meaningful public engagement, and transparency throughout the process.
The Minnesota DOT, for example, assembled a Sustainable Transportation Advisory Council that shapes the agency’s climate policies. It also launched an online dashboard to make performance metrics accessible and promote accountability. The Washington State DOT has published its Gray Notebook quarterly since a 2007 state law established new accountability requirements. Virginia stands out for its highly transparent project prioritization process, using concrete scoring criteria and immediately publishing detailed project scores during programming cycles.
The Innovative DOT offers a variety of tools and practices for infusing long-term goals defined in plans throughout everyday decisions and actions. All of these are critical to ensuring an agency’s vision and plan are executed effectively.
Published February 2025.