Recent spikes in gas prices expose a fragile system that financially strains car-dependent households. When prices rise, however, people adapt in surprising ways, especially when they have reliable options. Transportation leaders can seize this moment to take steps toward reducing car dependency and building systems that are resilient by providing more affordable travel choices before the next disruption occurs or if the current trends continue.
gas prices
Transportation disrupted: People adapt to rising prices
Most traffic models and transportation plans assume people’s travel behavior is largely predictable and unchanging. Usually, this means more and more driving year after year, and investments aimed at meeting that rising demand. But the most recent spike in gas prices shows just how quickly people adapt their behavior to even small price cues.
Transportation disrupted: Rising prices expose a vulnerable system
When gas prices spike, millions of Americans have little choice but to pay the bill. That is not just a cost problem. It is a sign that the U.S. transportation system rests on a fragile foundation shaped by land use and infrastructure that require a car for most everyday trips. At the same time, the transition to electric vehicles remains slow and uneven.
Alcohol and gasoline prices: Their impact on traffic fatalities and the economy
Alcohol and gasoline prices are having unexpected impacts on traffic fatalities, as well as causing damage to economies. A study from an economics professor at Southern University and A&M College in Louisiana explored the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and traffic fatalities, as well as the relationship between increased gasoline prices and traffic fatalities among young drivers (age 15–24).
Economy, gas prices pushed driving upward in 2015, but less than in past years
The number of vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. increased by 4.4 percent in 2015, according to numbers released by FHWA last week, setting a new record of 3.1 trillion miles. After testing several variables and model variations, we developed a model of VMT per capita based on GDP per capita and average annual gas prices. This model tracks actual VMT per capita very closely, including the recent increase, but only after we adjust for new trends observed over the past 20 years.
Factors affecting the decline in VMT: A new SSTI report
SSTI has released a paper outlining factors contributing to the recent decline in American driving and the implications for transportation planning.
A New Direction: Our Changing Relationship with Driving and the Implications for America’s Future (U.S. PIRG and Frontier Group, 2013)
A new report from U.S. PIRG and the Frontier Group examines demographic, economic, and social trends that they argue will make the drop in VMT in the U.S. permanent.
Getting Around When You’re Just Getting By: The Travel Behavior and Transportation Expenditures of Low-Income Adults (Mineta Transportation Institute, 2011)
This report examines how rising transportation costs affect low-income families. The research used in-depth interviews with 73 adults to determine travel behavior and transportation spending patterns; the costs and benefits of alternative modes of travel; cost management strategies; and opinions about the effects of changing transportation prices on travel behavior.
First quarter of 2012 shows more people are switching to transit
As per-capita VMT has begun to decline, an increasing number of people are riding the nation’s transit systems. According to APTA (American Public Transportation Association), transit ridership in the first quarter of 2012 increased 5 percent over 2011 levels.
Transportation needs are changing, but gas price isn’t the major factor, think tank says
Gasoline makes headlines when it reaches $4 per gallon, but this price benchmark has less affect on travel behavior than many assume, according to a new white paper by The Mobility Collaborative. The paper supports a recent SSTI analysis that also cast doubt on the power of gas prices to affect travel demand. VMT growth has flattened in recent years, but that trend correlates more strongly with re-densification of urbanized areas than with fuel prices.