Business Insider is the latest non-technical publication to highlight the trend toward flat overall VMT and declining per capita VMT. Three years ago, Nate Silver, now famous for election prognostication, also wrote a piece on declining VMT trends for Esquire. While much of this information is not news to transportation insiders, SSTI is asking for your suggestions about how agencies are addressing this new reality.
VMT
Mileage-Based User Fee Winners and Losers An Analysis of the Distributional Implications of Taxing Vehicle Miles Traveled, With Projections, 2010–2030 (Rand Corporation, 2012)
Equity is a commonly raised public acceptance concern regarding MBUFs. The research finds that a flat-rate MBUF would be no more or less regressive than fuel taxes, now or in the future. The findings are significant because they suggest that equity considerations based on ability to pay will not be a significant reason to oppose or support the adoption of MBUFs. Further, it is possible to structure an MBUF that provides incentives for fuel efficiency while maintaining other favorable qualities of MBUFs such as their economic efficiency and fiscal sustainability.
Have we hit Peak Car? What VMT data tell us
Nationwide, the decline in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is well documented, as is the decline in automobile ownership. Discussion of the causes remains a topic of debate. Regardless of cause, this new transportation reality is already changing the way DOTs do business. Most immediately, reduced VMT has resulted in lower fuel tax revenues. But almost as urgently, reduced VMT suggests that transportation agencies review plans and models that assume steadily growing automobile travel demand.
Wisconsin is most recent state to consider mileage-based user fee
Wisconsin is the most recent state to consider a mileage-based user fee. Although other states have considered such fees, none has yet been implemented. Although the political climate is hostile to additional taxes, many states are realizing that they have little choice but to find new revenues for their transportation systems.
Land Use Impacts on Transport: How Land Use Factors Affect Travel Behavior (Victoria Transportation Policy Institute, 2012)
This paper examines how various land use factors such as density, regional accessibility, mix and roadway connectivity affect travel behavior, including per capita vehicle travel, mode split and nonmotorized travel. This information is useful for …
First quarter of 2012 shows more people are switching to transit
As per-capita VMT has begun to decline, an increasing number of people are riding the nation’s transit systems. According to APTA (American Public Transportation Association), transit ridership in the first quarter of 2012 increased 5 percent over 2011 levels.
AZ DOT report finds compact development reduces VMT without increasing localized congestion
A first-ever analysis of land-use and transportation demand in Arizona contradicts fears that compact, “smart growth” development, while beneficial in moderating demand, will increase localized congestion. The report, produced for Arizona DOT in March, also suggests that traditional travel demand modeling is outmoded, unable to reflect land use effects on demand, and it disputes notions that compact development is inequitable and costly.
Exurban development continues to decline, while cities return to pre-recession growth
Growth in urban-fringe suburbs, once the fastest-growing parts of metropolitan areas, has stalled, new Census data shows. Central cities and inner suburbs have long lagged the growth rate of fringe counties, but now they are growing faster.
Transportation and the New Generation: Why Young People are Driving Less and What it Means for Transportation Policy (Frontier Group and U.S. PIRG Education Fund, 2012)
A new report released today by the U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund and the Frontier Group demonstrates that Americans have been driving less since the middle of last decade. This trend away from …
Young people turning away from cars
There has been a substantial decrease in the percentage of young people who possess a driver’s license. The ubiquity of social media may be a cause of this decline in VMT. Young people are also showing a preference for urban living and its better access to transit, walking, and biking. Many young people simply may be unable to afford the high cost of owning and maintaining a car. This decline has led to car companies overhauling their marketing and design strategies in an attempt to win back market share among youth.